Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Jabalain vs Al Bukayriyah

  1. Al Jabalain56%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Al Bukayriyah15%

1.51 expected goals for Al Jabalain

0.63 expected goals for Al Bukayriyah

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Jabalain the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Jabalain defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Bukayriyah attack, which scores 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Jabalain

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Jabalain attack−10%
  3. Al Bukayriyah defence+12%

Expected goals1.51

Al Bukayriyah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Bukayriyah attack−31%
  2. Al Jabalain defence−33%

Expected goals0.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.