Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Jeddah Club vs Al-Adalah

  1. Jeddah Club23%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Al-Adalah47%

1.07 expected goals for Jeddah Club

1.42 expected goals for Al-Adalah

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al-Adalah has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Jeddah Club win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jeddah Club attack, which scores 41% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Adalah defence, which lets in 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Jeddah Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Jeddah Club attack−41%
  3. Al-Adalah defence+20%

Expected goals1.07

Al-Adalah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Adalah attack−9%
  2. Jeddah Club defence+15%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.