Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha

  1. Al-Qadisiyah FC80%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Al-Fayha6%

3.00 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.81 expected goals for Al-Fayha

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the clear favourite: 80% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Qadisiyah FC attack, which scores 159% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Qadisiyah FC defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Qadisiyah FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Qadisiyah FC attack+159%
  3. Al-Fayha defence−23%

Expected goals3.00

Al-Fayha

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Fayha attack+20%
  2. Al-Qadisiyah FC defence−50%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.5 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 3.9 for Al-Fayha

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.2 for Al-Fayha

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

28.3 expected

18.7 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 9.6 for Al-Fayha

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

22.2 expected

11.2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 10.9 for Al-Fayha

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.