Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat

  1. Al Kholood41%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Al Khaleej Saihat36%

1.84 expected goals for Al Kholood

1.66 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Kholood attack, which scores 33% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Khaleej Saihat attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Kholood

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Kholood attack+33%
  3. Al Khaleej Saihat defence−8%

Expected goals1.84

Al Khaleej Saihat

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Khaleej Saihat attack+23%
  2. Al Kholood defence−1%

Expected goals1.66

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.5 for Al Kholood and 4.1 for Al Khaleej Saihat

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Al Kholood and 2.4 for Al Khaleej Saihat

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.6 for Al Kholood and 10.4 for Al Khaleej Saihat

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.6 for Al Kholood and 11.3 for Al Khaleej Saihat

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.