Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM
- Al-Ittihad FC41%
- Draw26%
- NEOM33%
1.47 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC
1.24 expected goals for NEOM
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Al-Ittihad FC has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a NEOM win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the NEOM defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Ittihad FC attack, which scores 75% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.8 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al-Ittihad FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al-Ittihad FC attack+75%
- NEOM defence−44%
Expected goals1.47
NEOM
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- NEOM attack+41%
- Al-Ittihad FC defence−35%
Expected goals1.23
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score57%
- Al-Ittihad FC or draw67%
- Draw or NEOM59%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
5.2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 4.6 for NEOM
- Over 8.5 corners60%
- Over 9.5 corners50%
- Over 10.5 corners40%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.7 for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.2 for NEOM
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
24.5 expected
14.5 for Al-Ittihad FC and 10.0 for NEOM
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
22.4 expected
10.7 for Al-Ittihad FC and 11.8 for NEOM
- Over 20.5 fouls63%
- Over 22.5 fouls48%
- Over 24.5 fouls33%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.