Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
- Al-Hazm11%
- Draw16%
- Al-Nassr73%
1.01 expected goals for Al-Hazm
2.91 expected goals for Al-Nassr
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Al-Nassr the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Nassr attack, which scores 159% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Nassr defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al-Hazm
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al-Hazm attack+19%
- Al-Nassr defence−44%
Expected goals1.01
Al-Nassr
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al-Nassr attack+159%
- Al-Hazm defence−17%
Expected goals2.91
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%
- Over 1.5 goals91%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Over 3.5 goals55%
- Over 4.5 goals36%
- Both teams score59%
- Al-Hazm or draw27%
- Draw or Al-Nassr89%
- No draw84%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
4.7 for Al-Hazm and 5.3 for Al-Nassr
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.8 for Al-Hazm and 2.0 for Al-Nassr
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
25.3 expected
10.8 for Al-Hazm and 14.5 for Al-Nassr
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots64%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
25.3 expected
13.1 for Al-Hazm and 12.2 for Al-Nassr
- Over 20.5 fouls80%
- Over 22.5 fouls68%
- Over 24.5 fouls54%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.