Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah

  1. Al-Faisaly FC34%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Al Diriyah42%

1.50 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC

1.65 expected goals for Al Diriyah

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al Diriyah has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Al-Faisaly FC win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Diriyah defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Faisaly FC attack, which scores 38% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Faisaly FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Faisaly FC attack+38%
  3. Al Diriyah defence−28%

Expected goals1.50

Al Diriyah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Diriyah attack+28%
  2. Al-Faisaly FC defence−5%

Expected goals1.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Al-Faisaly FC and 4.4 for Al Diriyah

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.5 for Al-Faisaly FC and 2.6 for Al Diriyah

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.1 expected

12.9 for Al-Faisaly FC and 12.2 for Al Diriyah

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.7 expected

10.7 for Al-Faisaly FC and 11.9 for Al Diriyah

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.