Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

  1. Al-Ahli Jeddah63%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Al Taawon15%

1.99 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.88 expected goals for Al Taawon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Ahli Jeddah attack, which scores 89% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Ahli Jeddah defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Ahli Jeddah attack+89%
  3. Al Taawon defence−31%

Expected goals1.99

Al Taawon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Taawon attack+10%
  2. Al-Ahli Jeddah defence−41%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3.9 for Al Taawon

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2.3 for Al Taawon

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

24.3 expected

14.9 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 9.4 for Al Taawon

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.4 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 12.2 for Al Taawon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.