Abha vs Al Shabab
- Abha24%
- Draw25%
- Al Shabab51%
1.10 expected goals for Abha
1.68 expected goals for Al Shabab
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Al Shabab has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Abha win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Shabab attack, which scores 62% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Abha defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Abha
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Abha attack−5%
- Al Shabab defence−23%
Expected goals1.10
Al Shabab
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al Shabab attack+62%
- Abha defence−24%
Expected goals1.68
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals30%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score57%
- Abha or draw49%
- Draw or Al Shabab76%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
4.5 for Abha and 4.7 for Al Shabab
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
4.3 expected
2.0 for Abha and 2.3 for Al Shabab
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
24.1 expected
10.8 for Abha and 13.2 for Al Shabab
- Over 20.5 shots69%
- Over 22.5 shots57%
- Over 24.5 shots45%
Fouls
23.4 expected
12.0 for Abha and 11.4 for Al Shabab
- Over 20.5 fouls70%
- Over 22.5 fouls55%
- Over 24.5 fouls40%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.