Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab

Al-Fateh31%
Draw25%
Al Shabab44%

1.30 expected goals for Al-Fateh

1.56 expected goals for Al Shabab

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Al Shabab has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Al-Fateh win at 31%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Both teams score58%
Al-Fateh or draw56%
Draw or Al Shabab69%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.6 for Al-Fateh and 4.8 for Al Shabab

Over 8.5 corners66%
Over 9.5 corners56%
Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.2 for Al-Fateh and 1.9 for Al Shabab

Over 3.5 cards59%
Over 4.5 cards39%
Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.0 expected

13.4 for Al-Fateh and 11.5 for Al Shabab

Over 20.5 shots74%
Over 22.5 shots62%
Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.8 for Al-Fateh and 12.5 for Al Shabab

Over 20.5 fouls75%
Over 22.5 fouls61%
Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.