Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Thursday 22 October, 12:00

Final score

Al-Fateh1-3Al Shabab

The model's most likely result happened: a Al Shabab win (44%).

Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab

  1. Al-Fateh31%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Al Shabab44%

1.30 expected goals for Al-Fateh

1.56 expected goals for Al Shabab

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Al Shabab has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Al-Fateh win at 31%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.6 for Al-Fateh and 4.8 for Al Shabab

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.2 for Al-Fateh and 1.9 for Al Shabab

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.0 expected

13.4 for Al-Fateh and 11.5 for Al Shabab

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.8 for Al-Fateh and 12.5 for Al Shabab

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.