Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Hellas Verona vs Carrarese

  1. Hellas Verona46%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Carrarese21%

1.37 expected goals for Hellas Verona

0.82 expected goals for Carrarese

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Hellas Verona has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 33% and a Carrarese win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Carrarese attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Hellas Verona defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hellas Verona

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hellas Verona attack−4%
  3. Carrarese defence−5%

Expected goals1.37

Carrarese

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Carrarese attack−25%
  2. Hellas Verona defence−19%

Expected goals0.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Hellas Verona and 4.2 for Carrarese

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Hellas Verona and 2.5 for Carrarese

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

28.1 expected

17.0 for Hellas Verona and 11.1 for Carrarese

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.7 for Hellas Verona and 11.8 for Carrarese

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.