Saturday 31 October, 09:00
Sudtirol vs Cesena
- Sudtirol40%
- Draw33%
- Cesena27%
1.25 expected goals for Sudtirol
0.98 expected goals for Cesena
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sudtirol attack, which scores 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cesena attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Sudtirol
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Sudtirol attack−32%
- Cesena defence+21%
Expected goals1.25
Cesena
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Cesena attack−26%
- Sudtirol defence−3%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals66%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals19%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score52%
- Sudtirol or draw73%
- Draw or Cesena60%
- No draw66%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.0 for Sudtirol and 4.5 for Cesena
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.6 for Sudtirol and 2.2 for Cesena
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
27.1 expected
15.0 for Sudtirol and 12.1 for Cesena
- Over 20.5 shots82%
- Over 22.5 shots73%
- Over 24.5 shots62%
Fouls
23.5 expected
11.1 for Sudtirol and 12.3 for Cesena
- Over 20.5 fouls70%
- Over 22.5 fouls56%
- Over 24.5 fouls41%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.