Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella

  1. Sampdoria29%
  2. Draw34%
  3. Virtus Entella37%

0.94 expected goals for Sampdoria

1.19 expected goals for Virtus Entella

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sampdoria attack, which scores 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Virtus Entella attack, which scores 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sampdoria

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sampdoria attack−39%
  3. Virtus Entella defence+2%

Expected goals0.94

Virtus Entella

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Virtus Entella attack−24%
  2. Sampdoria defence+15%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.2 for Sampdoria and 3.9 for Virtus Entella

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Sampdoria and 2.4 for Virtus Entella

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.2 expected

13.2 for Sampdoria and 12.0 for Virtus Entella

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

25.5 expected

12.5 for Sampdoria and 13.0 for Virtus Entella

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.