Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Modena vs Mantova

  1. Modena45%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Mantova25%

1.68 expected goals for Modena

1.22 expected goals for Mantova

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Modena has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Mantova win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Modena defence, which lets in 11% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Modena

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Modena attack+2%
  3. Mantova defence+10%

Expected goals1.68

Mantova

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Mantova attack0%
  2. Modena defence−11%

Expected goals1.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.5 for Modena and 3.8 for Mantova

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Modena and 2.5 for Mantova

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.5 expected

17.5 for Modena and 10.0 for Mantova

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

24.4 expected

10.9 for Modena and 13.5 for Mantova

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.