Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Empoli vs Juve Stabia

  1. Empoli31%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Juve Stabia36%

1.09 expected goals for Empoli

1.26 expected goals for Juve Stabia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Empoli attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Juve Stabia attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Empoli

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Empoli attack−22%
  3. Juve Stabia defence−8%

Expected goals1.09

Juve Stabia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Juve Stabia attack−20%
  2. Empoli defence+15%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for Empoli and 4.1 for Juve Stabia

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Empoli and 2.1 for Juve Stabia

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

28.4 expected

12.8 for Empoli and 15.7 for Juve Stabia

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

28.5 expected

15.0 for Empoli and 13.5 for Juve Stabia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.