Saturday 31 October, 09:00
Catanzaro vs Padova
- Catanzaro37%
- Draw31%
- Padova32%
1.54 expected goals for Catanzaro
1.45 expected goals for Padova
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Catanzaro defence, which lets in 41% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Padova attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Catanzaro
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Catanzaro attack+5%
- Padova defence−3%
Expected goals1.54
Padova
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Padova attack−25%
- Catanzaro defence+41%
Expected goals1.45
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals35%
- Over 4.5 goals18%
- Both teams score53%
- Catanzaro or draw68%
- Draw or Padova63%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
5.4 for Catanzaro and 4.9 for Padova
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.7 for Catanzaro and 2.3 for Padova
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
30.3 expected
16.6 for Catanzaro and 13.7 for Padova
- Over 20.5 shots91%
- Over 22.5 shots84%
- Over 24.5 shots76%
Fouls
24.4 expected
10.9 for Catanzaro and 13.4 for Padova
- Over 20.5 fouls76%
- Over 22.5 fouls62%
- Over 24.5 fouls47%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.