Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Avellino vs Pisa

  1. Avellino32%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Pisa37%

1.29 expected goals for Avellino

1.48 expected goals for Pisa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Avellino attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Avellino

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Avellino attack−18%
  3. Pisa defence+5%

Expected goals1.29

Pisa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Pisa attack+4%
  2. Avellino defence+5%

Expected goals1.48

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.1 for Avellino and 4.6 for Pisa

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Avellino and 2.4 for Pisa

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.8 for Avellino and 12.2 for Pisa

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.2 for Avellino and 11.2 for Pisa

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.