Saturday 31 October, 09:00
Arezzo vs Ascoli
- Arezzo27%
- Draw31%
- Ascoli42%
1.08 expected goals for Arezzo
1.58 expected goals for Ascoli
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Ascoli has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Arezzo win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arezzo defence, which lets in 27% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Ascoli defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Arezzo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Arezzo attack−12%
- Ascoli defence−18%
Expected goals1.08
Ascoli
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Ascoli attack−8%
- Arezzo defence+27%
Expected goals1.58
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score53%
- Arezzo or draw58%
- Draw or Ascoli73%
- No draw69%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.1 for Arezzo and 4.7 for Ascoli
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.7 for Arezzo and 2.2 for Ascoli
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
26.7 expected
14.0 for Arezzo and 12.7 for Ascoli
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
25.6 expected
13.4 for Arezzo and 12.2 for Ascoli
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls70%
- Over 24.5 fouls56%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.