Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Tuesday 27 October, 09:00

Final score

Pisa3-3Palermo

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Palermo win (46%).

Pisa vs Palermo

  1. Pisa26%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Palermo46%

1.18 expected goals for Pisa

1.86 expected goals for Palermo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Palermo has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Pisa win at 26%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.7 for Pisa and 4.1 for Palermo

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Pisa and 2.2 for Palermo

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.0 expected

13.8 for Pisa and 14.2 for Palermo

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

23.3 expected

10.9 for Pisa and 12.3 for Palermo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.