Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Tuesday 27 October, 09:00

Final score

Cesena2-1Empoli

The model gave this result 33%. Its most likely result was a Empoli win (35%).

Cesena vs Empoli

  1. Cesena33%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Empoli35%

1.22 expected goals for Cesena

1.32 expected goals for Empoli

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 35%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.3 for Cesena and 4.2 for Empoli

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Cesena and 2.2 for Empoli

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

29.3 expected

17.3 for Cesena and 12.0 for Empoli

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

24.0 expected

12.1 for Cesena and 11.9 for Empoli

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.