Tuesday 27 October, 09:00
Final score
Carrarese2-1Arezzo
The model's most likely result happened: a Carrarese win (39%).
Carrarese vs Arezzo
- Carrarese39%
- Draw32%
- Arezzo29%
1.38 expected goals for Carrarese
1.14 expected goals for Arezzo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals72%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen
- Both teams score53%
- Carrarese or draw72%
- Draw or Arezzo61%
- No draw68%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
5.0 for Carrarese and 4.2 for Arezzo
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.9 for Carrarese and 2.2 for Arezzo
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
24.9 expected
12.2 for Carrarese and 12.7 for Arezzo
- Over 20.5 shots73%
- Over 22.5 shots62%
- Over 24.5 shots50%
Fouls
26.0 expected
14.0 for Carrarese and 12.0 for Arezzo
- Over 20.5 fouls84%
- Over 22.5 fouls73%
- Over 24.5 fouls59%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.