Modena vs Cesena

Modena51%
Draw30%
Cesena19%

1.69 expected goals for Modena

0.94 expected goals for Cesena

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Modena has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Cesena win at 19%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
Over 3.5 goals27%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Both teams score53%
Modena or draw81%
Draw or Cesena49%
No draw70%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Modena and 4.2 for Cesena

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Modena and 2.3 for Cesena

Over 3.5 cards60%
Over 4.5 cards40%
Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

30.8 expected

21.1 for Modena and 9.8 for Cesena

Over 20.5 shots90%
Over 22.5 shots84%
Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

24.0 expected

11.2 for Modena and 12.8 for Cesena

Over 20.5 fouls73%
Over 22.5 fouls59%
Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.