Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 24 October, 08:00

Final score

Avellino0-1Padova

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Avellino win (41%).

Avellino vs Padova

  1. Avellino41%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Padova26%

1.37 expected goals for Avellino

1.05 expected goals for Padova

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Avellino has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 33% and a Padova win at 26%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.6 for Avellino and 4.8 for Padova

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for Avellino and 2.2 for Padova

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.5 expected

14.3 for Avellino and 13.2 for Padova

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.8 for Avellino and 12.4 for Padova

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.