Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 24 October, 08:00

Final score

Arezzo0-3Benevento

The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a Arezzo win (40%).

Arezzo vs Benevento

  1. Arezzo40%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Benevento30%

1.62 expected goals for Arezzo

1.41 expected goals for Benevento

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Arezzo has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Benevento win at 30%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.8 for Arezzo and 4.2 for Benevento

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Arezzo and 2.3 for Benevento

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.7 expected

13.2 for Arezzo and 11.5 for Benevento

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

24.6 expected

10.8 for Arezzo and 13.8 for Benevento

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.