Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Chile)

The match has started. The result will appear here once we have it (it can take a few hours).

Santiago City vs Linares Unido

  1. Santiago City38%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Linares Unido39%

1.65 expected goals for Santiago City

1.70 expected goals for Linares Unido

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Santiago City defence, which lets in 35% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Santiago City attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Santiago City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Santiago City attack+16%
  3. Linares Unido defence−6%

Expected goals1.65

Linares Unido

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Linares Unido attack−7%
  2. Santiago City defence+35%

Expected goals1.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is exactly what was published before the match.