Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Chile)

Santiago Morning vs Lota Schwager

  1. Santiago Morning31%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Lota Schwager41%

0.90 expected goals for Santiago Morning

1.19 expected goals for Lota Schwager

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lota Schwager has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Santiago Morning win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Santiago Morning attack, which scores 36% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Santiago Morning

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Santiago Morning attack−36%
  3. Lota Schwager defence−6%

Expected goals0.90

Lota Schwager

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Lota Schwager attack−5%
  2. Santiago Morning defence−8%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.