Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Chile)

Real San Joaquín vs Provincial Ovalle

  1. Real San Joaquín40%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Provincial Ovalle34%

1.39 expected goals for Real San Joaquín

1.25 expected goals for Provincial Ovalle

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Provincial Ovalle attack, which scores 35% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Real San Joaquín defence, which lets in 42% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real San Joaquín

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real San Joaquín attack−24%
  3. Provincial Ovalle defence+22%

Expected goals1.39

Provincial Ovalle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Provincial Ovalle attack−35%
  2. Real San Joaquín defence+42%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.