Probably Football

Matches

Frauen Bundesliga (Germany)

Eintracht Frankfurt W vs VfL Wolfsburg W

  1. Eintracht Frankfurt W36%
  2. Draw18%
  3. VfL Wolfsburg W46%

1.84 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt W

2.05 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

VfL Wolfsburg W has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 18% and a Eintracht Frankfurt W win at 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the VfL Wolfsburg W attack, which scores 108% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Eintracht Frankfurt W attack, which scores 74% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Eintracht Frankfurt W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt W attack+74%
  3. VfL Wolfsburg W defence−30%

Expected goals1.84

VfL Wolfsburg W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. VfL Wolfsburg W attack+108%
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt W defence−28%

Expected goals2.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals70%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals35%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.7 for Eintracht Frankfurt W and 5.0 for VfL Wolfsburg W

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Eintracht Frankfurt W and 2.1 for VfL Wolfsburg W

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

28.7 expected

14.6 for Eintracht Frankfurt W and 14.1 for VfL Wolfsburg W

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

20.3 expected

10.8 for Eintracht Frankfurt W and 9.6 for VfL Wolfsburg W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls47%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls31%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls19%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.