Probably Football

Matches

Frauen Bundesliga (Germany)

Bayern Munich W vs Werder Bremen W

  1. Bayern Munich W87%
  2. Draw9%
  3. Werder Bremen W4%

3.12 expected goals for Bayern Munich W

0.60 expected goals for Werder Bremen W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bayern Munich W the clear favourite: 87% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bayern Munich W defence, which lets in 68% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bayern Munich W attack, which scores 153% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 69% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 8.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bayern Munich W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bayern Munich W attack+153%
  3. Werder Bremen W defence−18%

Expected goals3.12

Werder Bremen W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Werder Bremen W attack+36%
  2. Bayern Munich W defence−68%

Expected goals0.60

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals69%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

4.9 for Bayern Munich W and 3.9 for Werder Bremen W

  1. Over 8.5 corners49%
  2. Over 9.5 corners38%
  3. Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Bayern Munich W and 2.5 for Werder Bremen W

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.2 expected

18.9 for Bayern Munich W and 9.3 for Werder Bremen W

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.6 for Bayern Munich W and 11.7 for Werder Bremen W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.