Probably Football

Matches

Taça da Liga (Portugal)

Tuesday 27 October, 15:00

Final score

Sporting CP2-1Maritimo

The model's most likely result happened: a Sporting CP win (82%).

Sporting CP vs Maritimo

  1. Sporting CP82%
  2. Draw11%
  3. Maritimo7%

2.95 expected goals for Sporting CP

0.75 expected goals for Maritimo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Sporting CP the clear favourite: 82% to win. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.0 for Sporting CP and 3.9 for Maritimo

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Sporting CP and 2.4 for Maritimo

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.1 expected

15.6 for Sporting CP and 9.5 for Maritimo

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

26.2 expected

11.4 for Sporting CP and 14.8 for Maritimo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.