Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken

  1. FC Viktoria Köln50%
  2. Draw25%
  3. FC Saarbrücken25%

2.05 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln

1.30 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Viktoria Köln has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a FC Saarbrücken win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Viktoria Köln attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Viktoria Köln

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Viktoria Köln attack+19%
  3. FC Saarbrücken defence+14%

Expected goals2.05

FC Saarbrücken

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Saarbrücken attack+8%
  2. FC Viktoria Köln defence−12%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.5 for FC Viktoria Köln and 4.1 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for FC Viktoria Köln and 2.5 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

27.8 expected

17.5 for FC Viktoria Köln and 10.2 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

24.6 expected

13.2 for FC Viktoria Köln and 11.3 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.