Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Havelse28%
Draw25%
FC Ingolstadt 0447%

1.45 expected goals for Havelse

2.33 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Ingolstadt 04 has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Havelse win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Havelse defence, which lets in 71% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Havelse

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

Playing at home+11%
Havelse attack−8%
FC Ingolstadt 04 defence+5%

Expected goals1.45

FC Ingolstadt 04

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack0%
Havelse defence+71%

Expected goals2.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Over 4.5 goals33%

Both teams score61%
Havelse or draw53%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 0472%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.3 for Havelse and 4.7 for FC Ingolstadt 04

Over 8.5 corners61%
Over 9.5 corners51%
Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Havelse and 2.4 for FC Ingolstadt 04

Over 3.5 cards61%
Over 4.5 cards42%
Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.6 expected

12.9 for Havelse and 13.7 for FC Ingolstadt 04

Over 20.5 shots80%
Over 22.5 shots71%
Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

23.0 expected

11.7 for Havelse and 11.4 for FC Ingolstadt 04

Over 20.5 fouls67%
Over 22.5 fouls52%
Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.