Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock

  1. SSV Jahn Regensburg40%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Hansa Rostock35%

1.67 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.58 expected goals for Hansa Rostock

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hansa Rostock defence, which lets in 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SSV Jahn Regensburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SSV Jahn Regensburg attack−5%
  3. Hansa Rostock defence+16%

Expected goals1.67

Hansa Rostock

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hansa Rostock attack+4%
  2. SSV Jahn Regensburg defence+11%

Expected goals1.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.9 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 4.1 for Hansa Rostock

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.5 for Hansa Rostock

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

23.9 expected

13.7 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 10.2 for Hansa Rostock

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

23.5 expected

12.2 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 11.3 for Hansa Rostock

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.