Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln

  1. Hoffenheim II28%
  2. Draw25%
  3. FC Viktoria Köln47%

1.43 expected goals for Hoffenheim II

2.29 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Viktoria Köln has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Hoffenheim II win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hoffenheim II defence, which lets in 36% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Viktoria Köln attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hoffenheim II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hoffenheim II attack+2%
  3. FC Viktoria Köln defence−7%

Expected goals1.43

FC Viktoria Köln

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Viktoria Köln attack+24%
  2. Hoffenheim II defence+36%

Expected goals2.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.3 for Hoffenheim II and 4.2 for FC Viktoria Köln

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

5.2 expected

3.0 for Hoffenheim II and 2.3 for FC Viktoria Köln

  1. Over 3.5 cards77%
  2. Over 4.5 cards60%
  3. Over 5.5 cards43%

Shots

25.6 expected

13.7 for Hoffenheim II and 11.9 for FC Viktoria Köln

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

25.1 expected

12.7 for Hoffenheim II and 12.4 for FC Viktoria Köln

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.