Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers

  1. Fortuna Köln48%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Würzburger Kickers26%

1.47 expected goals for Fortuna Köln

0.95 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Fortuna Köln has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Würzburger Kickers win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Fortuna Köln attack, which scores 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Würzburger Kickers defence, which lets in 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fortuna Köln

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fortuna Köln attack−28%
  3. Würzburger Kickers defence+36%

Expected goals1.47

Würzburger Kickers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Würzburger Kickers attack−22%
  2. Fortuna Köln defence−10%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.7 for Fortuna Köln and 4.0 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.1 for Fortuna Köln and 2.4 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.7 expected

14.4 for Fortuna Köln and 12.3 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

26.4 expected

14.0 for Fortuna Köln and 12.4 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.