Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Meppen

  1. Fortuna Düsseldorf45%
  2. Draw26%
  3. SV Meppen29%

1.47 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.07 expected goals for SV Meppen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Fortuna Düsseldorf has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a SV Meppen win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SV Meppen attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Fortuna Düsseldorf attack, which scores 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fortuna Düsseldorf attack−16%
  3. SV Meppen defence+16%

Expected goals1.47

SV Meppen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SV Meppen attack−17%
  2. Fortuna Düsseldorf defence−6%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 4.7 for SV Meppen

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2.6 for SV Meppen

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

25.1 expected

14.4 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 10.7 for SV Meppen

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.5 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 11.3 for SV Meppen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.