Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II

  1. MSV Duisburg55%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Stuttgart II20%

2.58 expected goals for MSV Duisburg

1.38 expected goals for Stuttgart II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes MSV Duisburg the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Stuttgart II defence, which lets in 36% more goals than an average team. Next comes the MSV Duisburg attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 8.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

MSV Duisburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. MSV Duisburg attack+26%
  3. Stuttgart II defence+36%

Expected goals2.58

Stuttgart II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Stuttgart II attack+2%
  2. MSV Duisburg defence0%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals56%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.6 expected

5.1 for MSV Duisburg and 3.5 for Stuttgart II

  1. Over 8.5 corners47%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners27%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for MSV Duisburg and 2.5 for Stuttgart II

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

23.5 expected

13.9 for MSV Duisburg and 9.7 for Stuttgart II

  1. Over 20.5 shots66%
  2. Over 22.5 shots54%
  3. Over 24.5 shots41%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.8 for MSV Duisburg and 12.1 for Stuttgart II

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.