Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 07:00

Final score

FC Viktoria Köln3-1Verl

The model's most likely result happened: a FC Viktoria Köln win (48%).

FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl

  1. FC Viktoria Köln48%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Verl27%

1.92 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln

1.32 expected goals for Verl

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Viktoria Köln has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Verl win at 27%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.4 for FC Viktoria Köln and 4.8 for Verl

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for FC Viktoria Köln and 2.5 for Verl

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

27.1 expected

16.0 for FC Viktoria Köln and 11.1 for Verl

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

22.3 expected

11.1 for FC Viktoria Köln and 11.2 for Verl

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.