Saturday 24 October, 07:00
Final score
Rot-Weiß Essen1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg
The model's most likely result happened: a Rot-Weiß Essen win (45%).
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Rot-Weiß Essen45%
- Draw25%
- SSV Jahn Regensburg30%
1.93 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen
1.46 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Rot-Weiß Essen has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a SSV Jahn Regensburg win at 30%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.5 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals86%It did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals58%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals44%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals26%It did not happen
- Both teams score59%
- Rot-Weiß Essen or draw70%
- Draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg55%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.2 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 4.3 for SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.1 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 2.4 for SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Over 3.5 cards66%
- Over 4.5 cards47%
- Over 5.5 cards30%
Shots
24.2 expected
15.0 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 9.3 for SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Over 20.5 shots70%
- Over 22.5 shots58%
- Over 24.5 shots45%
Fouls
22.0 expected
10.6 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 11.4 for SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Over 20.5 fouls60%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls30%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.