Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 07:00

Final score

SV Meppen4-0Würzburger Kickers

The model's most likely result happened: a SV Meppen win (40%).

SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers

  1. SV Meppen40%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Würzburger Kickers35%

1.43 expected goals for SV Meppen

1.35 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.8 for SV Meppen and 3.8 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.4 for SV Meppen and 2.2 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

26.3 expected

16.0 for SV Meppen and 10.3 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

24.1 expected

12.7 for SV Meppen and 11.4 for Würzburger Kickers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.