Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 07:00

Final score

Waldhof Mannheim4-1Hoffenheim II

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Hoffenheim II win (39%).

Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II

  1. Waldhof Mannheim36%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Hoffenheim II39%

1.64 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim

1.83 expected goals for Hoffenheim II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

4.8 for Waldhof Mannheim and 4.8 for Hoffenheim II

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Waldhof Mannheim and 2.5 for Hoffenheim II

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

24.0 expected

10.8 for Waldhof Mannheim and 13.1 for Hoffenheim II

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.5 for Waldhof Mannheim and 12.0 for Hoffenheim II

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.