Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 07:00

Final score

FC Ingolstadt 042-1MSV Duisburg

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a MSV Duisburg win (43%).

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

  1. FC Ingolstadt 0432%
  2. Draw25%
  3. MSV Duisburg43%

1.44 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04

1.91 expected goals for MSV Duisburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

MSV Duisburg has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a FC Ingolstadt 04 win at 32%. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.9 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 5.1 for MSV Duisburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.4 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.9 for MSV Duisburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

25.2 expected

13.1 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 12.1 for MSV Duisburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

21.5 expected

11.1 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 10.3 for MSV Duisburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.