Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Veles vs Spartak Kostroma

  1. Veles37%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Spartak Kostroma36%

1.26 expected goals for Veles

1.32 expected goals for Spartak Kostroma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Spartak Kostroma defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Veles

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Veles attack+2%
  3. Spartak Kostroma defence−18%

Expected goals1.26

Spartak Kostroma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Spartak Kostroma attack−2%
  2. Veles defence−1%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.