Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Tekstilshchik

  1. Volga Ulyanovsk54%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Tekstilshchik19%

1.54 expected goals for Volga Ulyanovsk

0.82 expected goals for Tekstilshchik

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Volga Ulyanovsk has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Tekstilshchik win at 19%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tekstilshchik attack, which scores 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tekstilshchik defence, which lets in 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Volga Ulyanovsk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Volga Ulyanovsk attack−15%
  3. Tekstilshchik defence+20%

Expected goals1.54

Tekstilshchik

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tekstilshchik attack−34%
  2. Volga Ulyanovsk defence−9%

Expected goals0.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.