Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Rotor Volgograd vs FC UFA

  1. Rotor Volgograd48%
  2. Draw31%
  3. FC UFA21%

1.19 expected goals for Rotor Volgograd

0.70 expected goals for FC UFA

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rotor Volgograd has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a FC UFA win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rotor Volgograd defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC UFA attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rotor Volgograd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rotor Volgograd attack+4%
  3. FC UFA defence−24%

Expected goals1.19

FC UFA

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC UFA attack−26%
  2. Rotor Volgograd defence−30%

Expected goals0.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%
  2. Over 1.5 goals57%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals12%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.