Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula

  1. Nizhny Novgorod79%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Arsenal Tula8%

3.40 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod

0.95 expected goals for Arsenal Tula

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Nizhny Novgorod the clear favourite: 79% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nizhny Novgorod attack, which scores 81% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Nizhny Novgorod defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nizhny Novgorod

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nizhny Novgorod attack+81%
  3. Arsenal Tula defence+24%

Expected goals3.40

Arsenal Tula

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Arsenal Tula attack−7%
  2. Nizhny Novgorod defence−24%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.