Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FK Neftekhimik vs Ska-khabarovsk

  1. FK Neftekhimik33%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Ska-khabarovsk40%

1.25 expected goals for FK Neftekhimik

1.46 expected goals for Ska-khabarovsk

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FK Neftekhimik attack, which scores 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FK Neftekhimik

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FK Neftekhimik attack−23%
  3. Ska-khabarovsk defence+6%

Expected goals1.24

Ska-khabarovsk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ska-khabarovsk attack+3%
  2. FK Neftekhimik defence+4%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.