Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Leningradets vs Enisey

  1. Leningradets34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Enisey38%

1.17 expected goals for Leningradets

1.34 expected goals for Enisey

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Leningradets attack, which scores 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Leningradets

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Leningradets attack−28%
  3. Enisey defence+7%

Expected goals1.17

Enisey

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Enisey attack−12%
  2. Leningradets defence+11%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.