Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

KAMAZ vs Torpedo Moskva

  1. KAMAZ25%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Torpedo Moskva49%

1.00 expected goals for KAMAZ

1.55 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Torpedo Moskva has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a KAMAZ win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Torpedo Moskva defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Torpedo Moskva attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

KAMAZ

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. KAMAZ attack−9%
  3. Torpedo Moskva defence−28%

Expected goals1.00

Torpedo Moskva

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Torpedo Moskva attack+16%
  2. KAMAZ defence−1%

Expected goals1.55

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.